Bad Moon Rising: Scary Times Ahead for Hospital Staffing

We’re heading into the spooky season.  And I’m not just talking about October 31.  There are increasing signs and portents of coming gloom and impending doom that are downright haunting in their implications. 

We are currently sitting on a mountain of serious problems in America, like a $40 trillion federal government debt, a diesel fuel shortage (which undercuts truckers’ ability to get goods to market) and a debilitating level of inflation.  (You won’t believe what I just paid for a ham and cheese kolache!)  But as scary as the above items are, there’s an even bigger bad moon on the horizon for healthcare; and that’s the prospect of a massive black hole sucking up a significant number of medical providers and workers in the very near future. 

People Are Going Missing 

Here’s a headline for you: “Healthcare Workforce Shortage on Track to Rock US: 2 Million Workers Gone.”  That catchy little title and associated article was written this week by Ireland Owens of The Western Journal (WJ).  Owens went on to characterize the situation in dire terms, stating that “the U.S. may be on the verge of a major health workforce crisis in the near future.”  The article goes on to cite various sources and estimates that tend to support the proposition that the nation’s health workforce shortage is expected to nearly double by 2040. 

For example, federal authorities have previously projected a shortage of 267,330 full-time registered nurses by 2028, according to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing (AACN).  And that’s just the RNs.  Physicians are in short supply, as well. 

According to Michael Dill, director of workforce studies at the Association of American Medical Colleges, Americans may have limited access to care if the physician workforce gap continues to grow.  He put it in the following terms: 

If the physician workforce shortage continues to grow, access to medical care will become increasingly limited, and patients may face longer wait times.  The shortage could also have a real impact on public health while placing additional strain on practicing physicians, for whom burnout is already a serious concern.

Similarly, Business Wire is reporting that the growing workforce gap across the U.S. healthcare system could result in lower quality medical care and limit patients’ access to some crucial services. 

Michael Betz, chief growth and innovation officer at Covista—a leading healthcare education firm—had the following comments: 

By 2040, the U.S. could be short more than 2 million healthcare workers.  The shortage could cost the average American household up to $1,250 a year and put significant strain on the healthcare system. Rural and underserved communities would feel it first and hardest.

Now, that’s a spooky prediction.  But what’s the basis for this ominous outlook?  According to Betz, it’s because demand for healthcare workers is growing faster than our ability to train them and get them into the workforce.  While there has been substantial growth in the number of medical schools in the U.S. over the last 20 years, there has not been concomitant growth in certain residency and fellowship positions.  It’s a simple numbers game, and the table seems to be rigged against us at this point. 

So, is there any hope in mitigating this fateful future? 

The Search for Solutions 

According to Betz, the workforce gap isn’t inevitable.  He suggests that, if educators, policymakers and health system leaders can work together, the gap can be narrowed and the crisis in staffing can be averted—at least to some degree.  But someone needs to take the lead.  Medical societies, Congress and other healthcare executives need to develop a game plan that is workable and sustainable.  Factors such as training programs, job flexibility, burnout reduction, reimbursement considerations, as well as other issues should be put on the table for discussion and resolution. 

And finding solutions to this looming crisis is absolutely vital to the nation’s health.  Researchers suggest that solving the nation’s nursing shortage could save nearly 100,000 lives cumulatively by 2040, while fixing the physician gap could add more than six months to patients’ average life expectancy.   

Again, it will require committed leadership on the part of many stakeholders to turn a bad moon into a beacon of hope.